Informasi bisnis terhadap Krisis dan Peluang Investasi di Pasar Global

Now that the investment market in the exchange to the basic cause such fear among the invenstor. In several cycles observe fear will continue to revolve over the past year we have seen the pattern of interest. While in a market, when we hear the voice comments from various circles "this time is different!"



Now that the investment market in the exchange to the basic cause such fear among the invenstor. In several cycles observe fear will continue to revolve over the past year we have seen the pattern of interest. While in a market, when we hear the voice comments from various circles "this time is different!"

Presumably, they seemingly become a means for the future that happens. "current" is the only one there are things that will change the world forever, and so the stock price will never, never come down. Atmospherics is that at the end of the 1990s allowed for online pet food will change the world, the proportion of the Stratospheric so that the price-to-sales multiples without a dime of profit as far as the eye can see.

When the bubble bursts and fear take over we heard a different refrain, from the seemingly more tranquil than the type of bubbleheads from the cycle of greed: This is not different this time. Which is meant to be entertainment to the people of the equity portfolio has been eviscerated. Yes, you are now down 40%, but the world will not end, people still go to buy items, and there are still reasons to remain invested in the market. Shares of the good in the long term, so that only put - the sun will come out tomorrow, the night is dark before dawn, is the light at the end of the tunnel - convenient catch-phrase as many cups of chamomile tea.

"This is not different this time" is useful to say, as long as, yes, we still have an economic function, the daily humdrum of life continues to shareholders and most of us do indeed tend to be more of the long-term bonds. But there is a tendency to take that idea one step further: "This is not different this time" as a shorthand for surmising that the market will soon return to the top of the course that can be avoided. For most professional toiling away in the salt mines of Wall Street or the City of London is perfectly reasonable assumption is based on professional experience of their own - they come into the profession sometimes after the first Big Bull Market 1982 - 2000. Although a handful of debacles such as the famous Black Monday in 1987 or Icarus-like fence from the flameout fund Long Term Credit Management in 1998, for the entire period of 18 years only one calendar year (1990), when the S & P 500 stock index showed negative annual return. Brokers and money managers become accustomed to the DIPs sometimes intense enough (more than 20% in one of the famous Monday in 1987) but short-lived. This begat the confidence that gives rise to many different things that are not currently "supports all the words:" bump in the road "," soft landing "and" time-out to the market "has become a favorite for those with certain young children children in the house.

This confidence has been shaken somewhat in the decade-to-date. Since 2000 we have experienced three consecutive years of negative S & P 500 (2000-2003) and some restrictions intervene directly from the host of angels, we firmly on track for a fourth in 2008. Both Dow Jones Industrial Average and S & P 500 reached their 2000 high in the last few years, which technically is intended to symbolize the ratification of the bull market - but then they fall way that is not active and so if the level of the decade to 2007 really a continuation dari'82-00 bull market (which is the time that has reached popularity as a long bull market from the 20th century) is the type of bull markets with the star - Barry Bonds of a bull market for sports fans. Economy, as we just write a formal tipped into negative territory by -0.3% 3rd quarter GDP reading, showing very little in the way of positive signs of life. Real household income is the decline, consumer debt is at record levels, and higher still the head, and the banking system is low. Structural problems such as this only takes more than one or two cycles to exit the business itself, so that we can be for several more years in the anemic economy and stock market performance. If so, then it's not different this time "will take on a different meaning: it is not different from the 1906-22 or 1929-54, 1966-82, or - as the three macro bear market last century.

So the crisis at hand. How about the opportunity?

In a macro-economic cycle overall market, represented by the broader index, such as S & P 500 or Nasdaq Composite, usually driven by some sectors of the industry grows faster than other people and give momentum to the economy forward. For most of the time the last bull market, which began in 1982, the twin engines of growth is the financial sector and consumer-related goods and services. Financial institutions as the sector comprises about 5% of the S & P 500 market capitalization in 1980; 2007 and has grown to more than 23%. Consumers in all sub-sectors of the industry to come to this new, driven by the spread of choice (think of 70-odd types of shower gels and exfoliants at the Body Shop), micro-segmentation consumer demographics (Prius-driving outskirts of the city 28-37 years in professional women the $ 85-110K salary range, with a taste for bread ginger-flavored lattes), and 24 / 7 availability for consumers to experience the same customers and suppliers via the Internet.

Even growth in the financial sector and the consumer is quite closely related - the banks come with new ways to provide more credit to more consumers spend more on items, and goods and services increased supply chain to meet new challenges with many items for them to spend dollar credit on them.

They are twin engines of growth in the vertical downward spiral, and even when they return their footing they also may not be the engine of economic growth in the next cycle. In broad economic terms it is rather difficult to predict the industry is the sector that will be the next to accelerate from 5% to 25% of the broader market capitalization. Here are two that offer even better than the goods, although, in our opinion: innovative solutions in health services in one hand and alternative energy on the other. Both presidential candidates are focused on areas in both their campaign platforms. If Barack Obama truly become 44th President on 20 January 2009 and we have a clear mandate in these two directions: universal health care and effective way to energy independence in the next 10 years. That is not good to say that this sector will be profitable overnight. Biotechnology revolutionary innovation leading to the solution of health-risk, high long-term effort with the full obstacle to the commercial failure at critical junctures throughout discovery, trial and implementation phases. Alternative energy solutions in May to attend a scientific economy humming, but a non-starter.

Opportunities in the two regions and their position in the klieg lights where business ventures and government policies likely to cut back the vehicles in the capital market business. In a world where many asset-based risk (public stock, commodities, currencies, speculative-grade debt, etc.) appear less systematically on the risk-return basis, business capital, but is generally considered one of the riskiest asset markets, can see the relatively attractive. VC tend to have a very low correlation with other financial assets, so for example if the stock market and real estate market trends down over a long period investors will want to get exposure to a low asset exhibition correlation with their property - and that increase the attractiveness of VC . VC anticipate the future, there is no liquidity-day, so take the idea from the beginning of shares in companies with the potential to become a leader in the market will be very high growth, in our opinion, with private vehicles to investors in initial funding opportunities in this sector. There are many investors sitting on cash securities U.S. Treasury today, and that cash is ultimately looking for higher profit potential. As the dust at least strong aftershock tremors in the global capital market we will pay close attention to the flow of funds and the opportunity they can help accelerate.

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